A new peer-reviewed paper examines the literature on the influence of urban density on the diffusion of Covid-19.
Public discussion of Covid-19 has often tried to make a
connection between urban density and the rate of virus diffusion. The primary
assertion is that more densely populated areas have experienced a faster spread
of Covid-19. In Jacques Teller's recent Buildings & Cities synthesis paper, URBAN DENSITY AND COVID-19: TOWARDS AN ADAPTIVE APPROACH, he compares research studies to consider whether this is actually the case.
There is no scientific consensus about urban density’s role in the spread of
Covid-19. Instead, urban connectivity (the movement of people between cities)
is likely to play a bigger role in the diffusion of the pandemic.
A total of 15 recent papers on the connection between urban density and Covid-19 are examined. Across these statistical studies, Teller finds the connection between urban density and the diffusion of Covid-19 is a complex and disputed issue. Teller highlights that all of the studies acknowledged the multifactorial nature of Covid-19 diffusion, and often incorporated several factors into their analysis. Six core factors were identified in the different papers:
Of the six factors there was no single factor that clearly emerged as having a larger influence than others. Instead, the factors are closely intertwined in shaping the diffusion of the epidemic. In addition, each study only considered a sub-set of the factors listed. This divergence, along with several other differences made it difficult to compare and draw conclusions from the studies.
Crucially, the papers do not have a shared definition of urban density, nor do they all use the same dependent variable (this includes: total number of reported cases; number of reported cases/100,000 inhabitants; and number of reported deaths/ 100,000 inhabitants). Teller suggests that approaches to testing and tracing need to be incorporated into analyses, since differences in how cases and deaths were reported and counted will influence outcomes.
An important distinction between urban density and connectivity was not made across the papers. In studies that did distinguish between density and connectivity, the influence of urban density on the diffusion of Covid-19 tends to be reduced or negative. Only a small number of the studies considered external connectivity, even though it is widely acknowledged to play a crucial role in the diffusion of diseases in a globalised world. Teller notes that denser and larger cities are usually more connected; ignoring external connectivity may therefore lead to overestimations and an overemphasis of the role of urban density.
A number of gaps provide a valuable starting point for future enquiry. Teller suggests that:
It is only through synthesis of the type that Teller has undertaken here that we can see the patterns and gaps emerging in approaches to study this complex phenomenon. Through this, more conclusive analysis and clear ways forward for managing virus spread in urban environments can be developed.
Teller J. (2021). Urban density and Covid-19: towards an adaptive approach. Buildings and Cities, 2(1), pp. 150–165. DOI: https://doi.org/10.5334/bc.89
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